Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 5.4 | 13.3% | 46 | 0.4% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 4.0 | 9.8% | 34 | 0.25% |
| 20-29 | 16 | 9.0 | 22.3% | 77 | 0.37% |
| 30-39 | 11 | 6.4 | 14.7% | 51 | 0.37% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 4.4 | 9.8% | 34 | 0.32% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 3.6 | 10.7% | 37 | 0.29% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 4.9 | 12.7% | 44 | 0.38% |
| 70+ | 3 | 3.0 | 6.9% | 24 | 0.23% |
| All ages | 52 | 40.6 | 100% | 346 | 0.33% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26 | 30549 | 236336 | 723 | 185 | 253 |
| Apr 27 | 30588 | 236654 | 723 | 185 | 290 |
| Apr 28 | 30643 | 236805 | 723 | 185 | 314 |
| Apr 29 | 30674 | 237134 | 724 | 185 | 327 |
| Apr 30 | 30706 | 237395 | 724 | 185 | 316 |
| May 01 | 30729 | 237466 | 724 | 185 | 319 |
| May 02 | 30781 | 237547 | 724 | 185 | 346 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26 | 18818 | 156711 | 704 | 184 | 120 |
| Apr 27 | 18842 | 157165 | 705 | 184 | 142 |
| Apr 28 | 18858 | 157351 | 705 | 184 | 152 |
| Apr 29 | 18871 | 157511 | 708 | 184 | 142 |
| Apr 30 | 18886 | 157635 | 708 | 184 | 136 |
| May 01 | 18895 | 157689 | 708 | 184 | 136 |
| May 02 | 18908 | 157765 | 708 | 185 | 137 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.4 | 10.2% | 14 | 0.18% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 1.4 | 9.5% | 13 | 0.15% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 1.4 | 12.4% | 17 | 0.24% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 1.9 | 12.4% | 17 | 0.2% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 1.3 | 8% | 11 | 0.14% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2.0 | 13.1% | 18 | 0.19% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2.1 | 11.7% | 16 | 0.19% |
| 70+ | 4 | 3.3 | 22.6% | 31 | 0.44% |
| All ages | 13 | 14.9 | 100% | 137 | 0.21% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26 | 13577 | 91424 | 557 | 143 | 89 |
| Apr 27 | 13585 | 91484 | 558 | 143 | 91 |
| Apr 28 | 13601 | 91523 | 559 | 143 | 103 |
| Apr 29 | 13609 | 91585 | 560 | 143 | 106 |
| Apr 30 | 13615 | 91611 | 560 | 143 | 104 |
| May 01 | 13620 | 91720 | 560 | 143 | 100 |
| May 02 | 13623 | 91760 | 560 | 143 | 86 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.3 | 4.7% | 4 | 0.07% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 0.4 | 7% | 6 | 0.11% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 1.0 | 12.8% | 11 | 0.24% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.4 | 4.7% | 4 | 0.07% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 1.7 | 17.4% | 15 | 0.3% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.7 | 12.8% | 11 | 0.16% |
| 60-69 | -1 | 0.9 | 14% | 12 | 0.19% |
| 70+ | 2 | 2.3 | 26.7% | 23 | 0.36% |
| All ages | 3 | 7.7 | 100% | 86 | 0.19% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26 | 35200 | 315284 | 1028 | 182 | 324 |
| Apr 27 | 35255 | 315497 | 1029 | 182 | 369 |
| Apr 28 | 35296 | 315625 | 1029 | 182 | 399 |
| Apr 29 | 35334 | 315986 | 1029 | 182 | 398 |
| Apr 30 | 35355 | 316189 | 1029 | 182 | 384 |
| May 01 | 35381 | 316280 | 1029 | 182 | 368 |
| May 02 | 35414 | 316367 | 1032 | 182 | 356 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 3.9 | 9% | 32 | 0.27% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 2.7 | 6.7% | 24 | 0.14% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 7.0 | 16.9% | 60 | 0.28% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 4.6 | 13.8% | 49 | 0.36% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 4.3 | 11.5% | 41 | 0.3% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 3.4 | 9.3% | 33 | 0.23% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 3.3 | 9.3% | 33 | 0.23% |
| 70+ | 5 | 8.9 | 23.6% | 84 | 0.65% |
| All ages | 33 | 38.0 | 100% | 356 | 0.3% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26 | 128801 | 2470947 | 2570 | 509 | 2351 |
| Apr 27 | 129175 | 2474235 | 2571 | 509 | 2646 |
| Apr 28 | 129500 | 2476036 | 2573 | 509 | 2885 |
| Apr 29 | 129759 | 2478817 | 2572 | 509 | 2762 |
| Apr 30 | 130014 | 2480466 | 2573 | 509 | 2710 |
| May 01 | 130123 | 2481237 | 2574 | 509 | 2552 |
| May 02 | 130319 | 2481846 | 2574 | 510 | 2437 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 32 | 39.3 | 15.1% | 369 | 0.61% |
| 10-19 | 35 | 42.6 | 15.3% | 372 | 0.52% |
| 20-29 | 33 | 36.3 | 13.9% | 339 | 0.33% |
| 30-39 | 21 | 47.7 | 17.8% | 434 | 0.57% |
| 40-49 | 18 | 38.4 | 14.4% | 351 | 0.54% |
| 50-59 | 27 | 26.6 | 10.3% | 252 | 0.38% |
| 60-69 | 17 | 17.9 | 7.4% | 181 | 0.33% |
| 70+ | 13 | 13.7 | 5.7% | 139 | 0.28% |
| All ages | 196 | 262.4 | 100% | 2437 | 0.45% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26 | 1607024 | 14424220 | 63793 | 14413 | 11897 |
| Apr 27 | 1608845 | 14441754 | 63813 | 14413 | 13359 |
| Apr 28 | 1610601 | 14450891 | 63835 | 14413 | 14470 |
| Apr 29 | 1612258 | 14468527 | 63872 | 14415 | 14389 |
| Apr 30 | 1613441 | 14477965 | 63880 | 14415 | 14117 |
| May 01 | 1614126 | 14483385 | 63887 | 14415 | 13356 |
| May 02 | 1615315 | 14488611 | 63924 | 14424 | 13148 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 136 | 155.9 | 11% | 1444 | 0.23% |
| 10-19 | 149 | 155.1 | 10.4% | 1364 | 0.18% |
| 20-29 | 173 | 195.6 | 13.7% | 1795 | 0.24% |
| 30-39 | 157 | 230.0 | 15.8% | 2073 | 0.27% |
| 40-49 | 124 | 186.3 | 12.7% | 1666 | 0.24% |
| 50-59 | 153 | 173.4 | 12.2% | 1610 | 0.2% |
| 60-69 | 121 | 157.3 | 11.5% | 1510 | 0.2% |
| 70+ | 177 | 181.6 | 12.8% | 1682 | 0.26% |
| All ages | 1189 | 1435.7 | 100% | 13148 | 0.23% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.3 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.65 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-05-25 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 14313"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges